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    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

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    FAO joins Mozambique in its fight against illegal fishing

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    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

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    Agronomists in Africa should make better use of Chinese information and technology, expert advises

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    World Bank plans to help Sub-Saharan African economies achieve low carbon and climate-resilient outcomes

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    Mozambique Fisheries on high vigilance following outbreak of fish disease in Malawi

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    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    FAO joins Mozambique in its fight against illegal fishing

    FAO joins Mozambique in its fight against illegal fishing

    Sowing the Seeds of Industrial Farming in Mozambique

    Sowing the Seeds of Industrial Farming in Mozambique

    Report forecast Southern Africa to have a bumper crop

    Report forecast Southern Africa to have a bumper crop

    Agronomists in Africa should make better use of Chinese information and technology, expert advises

    Agronomists in Africa should make better use of Chinese information and technology, expert advises

    Lack of water halves banana production at Mozambique’s Bananalândia

    ‘Farms are going to need different kinds of robots’

  • Africa
    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    African campaigner calls for cage free egg production

    African campaigner calls for cage free egg production

    Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists

    Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists

    Empowering women in leadership using innovation to boost development

    Empowering women in leadership using innovation to boost development

    Centres of Innovation avail funds aimed at developing more resilient, nutritious crops in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Centres of Innovation avail funds aimed at developing more resilient, nutritious crops in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Microsoft partners with AGRA to support digital transformation in agriculture

    Microsoft partners with AGRA to support digital transformation in agriculture

  • Company
    Basis of the Nampula economy calls for a re-orientation of efforts towards the most profitable cash crops, Says Nyusi

    Basis of the Nampula economy calls for a re-orientation of efforts towards the most profitable cash crops, Says Nyusi

    Sporadic rains worry Zambezi farmers

    UN announces US$1.2mln animal health programme for Mozambique

    SADC countries told to effectively promote industrialisation and improve economic growth in the region

    SADC countries told to effectively promote industrialisation and improve economic growth in the region

    Ministry working on strategies to minimise wastage in agricultural production

    Ministry working on strategies to minimise wastage in agricultural production

    UK-AFRICA SUMMIT: Britain makes a small first step towards green technology

    UK-AFRICA SUMMIT: Britain makes a small first step towards green technology

    Israeli company awarded contract in Mozambique

    Israeli company awarded contract in Mozambique

  • International
    Agronomists in Africa should make better use of Chinese information and technology, expert advises

    Agronomists in Africa should make better use of Chinese information and technology, expert advises

    Lack of water halves banana production at Mozambique’s Bananalândia

    ‘Farms are going to need different kinds of robots’

    Agriculture windfall for African countries

    Mozambique,Zambia to receive agricultural funding from World Bank

    Mozambican, India agree to renew Pigeon Peas agreement

    Mozambican, India agree to renew Pigeon Peas agreement

    Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists

    Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists

    World Bank plans to help Sub-Saharan African economies achieve low carbon and climate-resilient outcomes

    World Bank plans to help Sub-Saharan African economies achieve low carbon and climate-resilient outcomes

  • Markets
    Mozambique Fisheries on high vigilance following outbreak of fish disease in Malawi

    Mozambique Fisheries on high vigilance following outbreak of fish disease in Malawi

    Govt’s initiative to boost cotton and cashew income

    Govt’s initiative to boost cotton and cashew income

    Maize planter calibration to improve your profitability

    Maize planter calibration to improve your profitability

    APPSA project brings joy to farmers in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia

    APPSA project brings joy to farmers in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia

    Contrasting agro-commodity prices across markets in Mozambique

    Contrasting agro-commodity prices across markets in Mozambique

    IFAD’s US115M funding of agriculture and fisheries in Mozambique

    IFAD’s US115M funding of agriculture and fisheries in Mozambique

  • Equipment
    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    Africa’s local ownership drive must balance foreign investment

    SACU countries to pay for duty-free wheat quota

    SACU countries to pay for duty-free wheat quota

    Novel Africa fertilizer analytics service developed

    Novel Africa fertilizer analytics service developed

    Agriculture windfall for African countries

    Mozambique,Zambia to receive agricultural funding from World Bank

    SADC NEEDS US$20 M to Fight Locust Plague

    SADC NEEDS US$20 M to Fight Locust Plague

    Mozambique prioritise Agriculture, intends to meet UN’s SDG goals

    Mozambique prioritise Agriculture, intends to meet UN’s SDG goals

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Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists

by Ian
November 30, 2020
in Africa, Editor picks, International, News
0
Countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism set to recover quicker from covid-19 economic crisis-Economists
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Economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Renaissance Capital are projecting that countries with sizeable agriculture sectors and low exposure to tourism will recover quicker from the economic crisis fuelled by the pandemic.

African countries that heavily depend on the tourism industry face a difficult recovery period after Covid-19, which continues to wreak havoc on global economies.

According to the IMF, the largest impact of the Covid-19 crisis on economic growth has been for tourism-dependent economies such as Mauritius, Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Comoros and the Gambia although commodity-exporting countries have been hit hard as well.

For tourism-dependent economies, the sector represents about 18 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on average and plays a crucial role in supporting livelihoods, and makes up about 25 per cent of total employment.

Tourism is also an important source of fiscal revenue, making up 18 per cent of income in Seychelles; while foreign exchange averaged more than 46 per cent of export receipts.

Despite a global recovery across many sectors, tourist inflows are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2023.

“Growth in more diversified economies will slow significantly, but in many cases will still be positive in 2020,” the IMF said in its Economic Outlook report for sub-Saharan Africa released in October.

“Oil exporting countries have also been hit hard, with an average contraction in 2020 projected at negative four per cent, while non-oil commodity exporters are expected to contract by negative 4.6 per cent.”

Growth in more diversified economies such as Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda will slow significantly, but will still be positive in 2020.

“We think the Kenyan economy remains on track to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2020 due to agriculture’s strong growth and the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in the second half of the year. We believe significantly lighter restrictions and the unlikely re-imposition of lockdown will support a pickup in growth to 4.2 per cent in 2021,” economists at Renaissance Capital said through their Macroeconomic update report for sub-Saharan Africa dated November 2020.

According to Renaissance, countries with sizeable agriculture sectors, low exposure to tourism and those with fiscal and household buffers will be quick to recover from their economic crises, though downside risks such as political risks in Ethiopia and Zambia and debt sustainability challenges in Angola could dampen the short-term economic recovery in these countries.

According to Renaissance, the agriculture sector, particularly with smallholder farmers not are growing cash crops — cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar cane or tobacco — will be one of the sectors most insulated from the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis largely due to the fact that it is not highly integrated with global supply chains and the banking system.

“If a country has good rains and agriculture is a sizeable sector, that economy should see growth in 2020 despite the Covid-19 pandemic,” they said.

The IMF projects that the economy for sub-Saharan Africa could contract by negative three per cent in 2020 and pick up modestly by 3.1 per cent in 2021 buoyed by improvements in exports and commodity prices as the world economy recovers, along with a recovery in both private consumption and investment.

According to the IMF, the resurgence of new coronavirus cases in many advanced economies and the spectre of repeated outbreaks across the African region suggest that the pandemic will likely remain a very real concern for some time to come.

“Nonetheless, amid high economic and social costs, countries are now cautiously starting to reopen their economies and are looking for policies to restart growth,” said the IMF.

“With the imposition of lockdowns, regional activity dropped sharply during the second quarter of 2020, but with a loosening of containment measures, higher commodity prices, and easing financial conditions, there have been some tentative signs of a recovery in the second half of the year.”

The current outlook is subject to greater-than-usual uncertainty and hinges on both the persistence of the Covid-19 shock, the availability of external financial support, and the availability of an effective, affordable, and trusted vaccine.

Other risks include political instability or the return of climate-related shocks, such as floods or droughts.

According to the IMF, limited resources will mean that policymakers aiming to rekindle their economies will face some difficult choices as both fiscal and monetary policies will have to balance the need to boost the economy against the need for debt sustainability, external stability, and longer-term credibility.

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